In principle, any organization or department that has to deal with significant uncertainties will benefit – if it can’t or doesn’t want to conduct a costly, time-consuming traditional Scenario Planning exercise. We have successfully applied our methodology in diverse contexts, spanning from an international research program to a DAX company.

Methodologically, Scenario Sprints with and without AI support are quite similar. The main difference is that most of the workshop tasks are performed by Generative AI instead of a team of human workshop participants. In both cases, an experienced facilitator is needed for guidance, to challenge results, and to ensure the quality of the final output. For example, ChatGPT can be used to generate trends, uncertainties, scenario content and impact analyses. AI tools like Midjourney or Dall-E help to visualise future worlds. Based on our experience, scenarios created with AI are similarly creative and sophisticated compared to the ones built by a competent scenario team. The only disadvantage is that the learning effect for the scenario team is somewhat lower, as they no longer have to go through the entire thought process themselves.

As before, to achieve big business impact with the scenarios, a smartly facilitated workshop/process is still necessary. It enables decision makers to explore the impacts of the scenarios and to develop actionable outcomes.

Yes. Because many people have little or no previous experience with scenario analysis or would like to get a better understanding how our approach works in practice, we have developed the “Lightning Scenario” format. It follows the same principles than a Scenario Sprint, but takes various shortcuts to compress scenario building and the discussion of implications on the organization to a 4-hour workshop. For example, it uses predefined trends and uncertainties that can be customized for your specific strategic question.

We use three different kinds of scenario methods (plus an AI-supported version of the Scenario Sprint, see above): (1) 1-hour Scenario Training, (2) Lightning Scenario Workshop, (3) Scenario Sprint. The following table gives an overview of the main characteristics compared to a large “traditional” scenario planning project:

Scenario Sprints do not have to happen in five consecutive days. We can stretch the workshops over a few weeks if that is more convenient for you. However, we need a fixed team that is available for all the workshops and key deciders should at least participate on the last day to facilitate scenario adoption within the organization.

The core team should consist of 4 to 7 people that have a good overview of the key topics and uncertainties that your organization is facing. Ideally, key decision makers are also part of the team. Otherwise, they can be integrated together with a larger group of other relevant stakeholders during the last phase of the Scenario Sprint. If you are doing an AI-supported Scenario Sprint, one or two people can be enough to define the scope and make sure that the key strategic questions are clear. For the “impact workshop” at the end, however, a broader involvement of key decision makers and stakeholder is essential for reaping the benefits of the scenarios.

You didn’t expect a specific number here, did you? What we can say is that because a Scenario Sprint takes only a tiny fraction of the time of a traditional scenario project, it is also an order of magnitude less expensive. An AI-supported is even more cost-effective — especially if you consider the time saved on your side (one workshop instead of five full days).

They can be highly reliable. There are quality checks built into the process — both in the AI and the “human” version. However, we do not aim for “decision scenarios” that are based on sophisticated quantitative models. Instead, you will arrive at “learning scenarios” that help you ask the right questions, not give you the final answers. What you shouldn’t expect in any case are predictions. Scenarios are built to be plausible but unlikely (by design, as each scenario combines various different outcomes of uncertainties!).

No. Not if you have capable facilitators that guide you through the process.

In many cases, yes. There are many potential use cases within large company (different products, markets, technologies, internal topics, …). Hence, corporate scenarios will often be too generic to provide real guidance. In contrast, the outcome of a Scenario Sprint is tailored to your strategic challenges. Because Scenario Sprints are so efficient, they can be run even for rather specific topics or single departments. Scenario Sprints are intended to cover the 99% of use cases that corporate scenarios cannot.

For the learning scenarios in itself, you could probably say that. That’s why you shouldn’t stop there: What matters in the end are the actions you take based on your insights. To make this easier, we have developed tools and methods that seamlessly tie into the Scenario Sprint process. For example, our “Scenario Impact Canvas” allows you to systematically assess the effects that different scenarios would have on you and other key ecosystem players. Or, with “scenario-inspired innovation”, you can develop, prototype and test ideas very quickly.